We are just days away from the start of the 2025 Draft, and I’d love nothing more than to say that the picture has become crystal clear in the first round, but it hasn’t.

This is the time ahead of each Draft when check-ins with teams up and down the opening round, especially in the top half, elicit responses like, “We’re looking to see who might make the best deal.” The signability work is happening in earnest and particularly in a year without clarity, there’s due diligence being done to see who might save a team picking early the most money.

At the end of the day, however, recent history has shown us that there typically aren’t that many big deals made at the top of the Draft. That doesn’t mean there won’t be any, but as I sit down to write this almost-final mock (Jim Callis will do the honors with the final one late Saturday night), I’m opting not to bite on most of those bargain-related rumors.

My goal is to get as close to the right answers, and provide as many viable options with each pick, in this version as the clock is ticking while knowing a lot of decisions have yet to be made. Let’s dig in.

1. Nationals: Kade Anderson, LHP, Louisiana State (No. 2 on the Top 250 Draft Prospects list)

The Nats are still looking at a larger group of candidates, but as Jim and I said on our most recent MLB Pipeline Podcast, we think it’s largely down to Anderson and Ethan Holliday here. We both put the odds for Anderson to be taken at 50 percent, Holliday at 40. I might amend that slightly now and up Anderson to 60 percent, but that’s more gut feel than anything. We don’t know how, if at all, the dismissal of GM Mike Rizzo will impact what the organization does here.

2. Angels: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee (No. 8)

While the Angels might be willing to go off their first-round script of recent years (advanced college player who gets to the big leagues in a hurry) and look at one of the top high school shortstops (Eli Willits leading the way), taking one of the college lefties here makes the most sense. If the Nationals take Holliday, then Anderson could be the player. With him off the board, Doyle and Jamie Arnold are next up and perhaps the Angels could save a little more money by taking the Tennessee southpaw who could impact the big league staff by next year. Doyle did go to the Draft Combine but didn’t have his medical done there, so like Willits and oft-brought up deal possibility Ike Irish, Doyle is not guaranteed at least 75 percent of the $10,252,700 slot value, and could then provide a deeper savings.

3. Mariners: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 3)

This is looking more and more like a landing spot for an arm. The Mariners would love for Anderson to land here, but that seems unlikely. If they want to go the college right-hander route, it sounds like they’d take a look at Oklahoma’s Kyson Witherspoon and perhaps Santa Barbara’s Tyler Bremner in more of a deal-type situation. Yes, Hernandez comes from the risky prep right-handed pitcher demographic, but he also might be the best pitcher in this class. If they switch gears and start looking at hitters, they could look at the college group and consider Oregon State’s Aiva Arquette or Irish.

4. Rockies: Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater (Okla.) HS (No. 1)

As we’ve stated before, this could very well be the floor for Holliday. Arquette is the other bat I’ve heard here as a possibility.

5. Cardinals: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS, Fort Cobb, Okla. (No. 5)

This is a spot where Irish could definitely land in a deal, but the Cardinals also like Willits a lot, and there are evaluators who think he could end up being the best overall talent in this class. Fellow prep shortstops JoJo Parker and Billy Carlson could come into play, and if they want an arm, they could choose Arnold or Witherspoon.

6. Pirates: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State (No. 6)

There’s interest in the top high school shortstops here, with Carlson the leader among those available. Arnold, the top college arm still available, is still very much being discussed, and Witherspoon could come into play, but I’m putting the college bat over the arms here.

7. Marlins: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 7)

We’ve written repeatedly how much the Marlins like Willits, but with him gone, Carlson could be the top target, though they also are looking at Parker. This could be another landing spot for Irish, and Arizona outfielder Brendan Summerhill’s name has been mentioned. Arnold is the main arm brought up in this spot.

8. Blue Jays: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State (No. 4)

This still feels like a college pitching landing spot and perhaps the Blue Jays didn’t expect Arnold to still be around. If he’s not, Witherspoon would be the most likely play, though the Jays could switch gears and look at the high school shortstop group, led by Parker.

9. Reds: Ike Irish, OF/C, Auburn (No. 11)

The Reds are in “best available” mode and they don’t shy away from any demographic, so this could be a floor for Hernandez. With him gone, this becomes a very viable landing spot for Irish and his offensive upside. He and Witherspoon, from the college arm group, seem to be ahead of a prep hitter like Parker at this point.

10. White Sox: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis (Miss.) HS (No. 9)

We’ve had Parker in this spot so many times, I’m almost afraid not to put him here. In all seriousness, they do like the prep shortstop among a group of bats they seem to be considering. It’s mostly other high schoolers like Steele Hall, Gavin Fien and Kayson Cunningham, but there is some interest in college hitters like infielders Marek Houston and Wehiwa Aloy.

11. Athletics: Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee (No. 21)

The A’s might be hoping one of the top prep shortstops get here, namely Willits or Carlson, but that seems unlikely. It seems like they’re continuing to lean position player and Kilen could be another quick-to-the-big-leagues college bat who joins All-Star Jacob Wilson in a hurry. To that end, they could also consider Summerhill, Aloy and Houston from that college bat crop.

12. Rangers: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS, Hoschton, Ga. (No. 13)

This continues to be a high school bat spot, with Pierce getting the edge over Hall, Cunningham or Fien.

13. Giants: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma (No. 10)

There could be a spirited college arm vs. bat debate here. In this scenario that could come down to Witherspoon vs. Summerhill, with an infielder like Houston also in play. I’m giving them the right-hander in the end.

14. Rays: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS, Trussville, Ala. (No. 12)

They could go the college arm route, with Bremner being the best available still on the board, and if Witherspoon slides one more spot, he’d be in play. But this still feels like another high school shortstop pick, with Hall getting the nod over Cunningham.

15. Red Sox: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest (No. 15)

This is another team contemplating whether to go in the arm or bat direction, and they could tilt toward the mound if Witherspoon is around. If not, Houston might lead the way among the college hitters like Summerhill or Aloy, with Bremner in play should the desire for a pitcher win the day.

16. Twins: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara (No. 18)

The Twins have demographic options here. Bremner is the arm being seriously considered, but if they wanted to take a hitter, they could look at Aloy and Summerhill from the college crop, with Fien and Cunningham being discussed from the prep set.

17. Cubs: Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona (No. 16)

The Cubs appear to be focusing on college players and leaning bat, with Summerhill getting the edge over someone like Aloy. If they wanted to go arm, this could be a good landing spot for Bremner and Arkansas right-hander Gage Wood could enter the conversation.

18. Diamondbacks: Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina (No. 32)

He’s the top catcher in the class, and I had the D-backs taking him with their comp pick in my last mock, but perhaps they’ll determine he wouldn’t get there and take him here to make sure they get the player they like. Aloy could be another college hitter they consider and Wood is the top college arm who comes up in conversation.

19. Orioles: Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS, Temecula, Calif. (No. 22)

With their most recent trade, the Orioles now have four of the top 37 picks in the Draft and have the largest bonus pool, so they can go in any direction they want. I’ve mostly been hearing hitters with this pick, with Fien’s pure hit tool getting the edge over the power of someone like Xavier Neyens (they might get him, too). College hitters like Aloy or Jace LaViolette could come into play.

20. Brewers: Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas (No. 23)

Yes, the Brewers haven’t taken a pitcher with their first selection since 2019, so maybe they’re due. If they stick with tradition and go hitter, Aloy and LaViolette could be considered from the college end of things and they’ll also likely discuss Cunningham from the high school side.

21. Astros: Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M (No. 20)

It’s been nothing but hitters from the get-go here, and there’s no reason to stray from that course now. LaViolette or Aloy make the most sense if they go college; Cunningham or perhaps Neyens could be the name pulled if they hit the high school set.

22. Braves: Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas (No. 17)

Should the Braves decide to go with a hitter, it could come down to Aloy or North Carolina catcher Luke Stevenson, and I’m giving the Golden Spikes Award winner the edge here. If they want a pitcher, the Braves haven’t shied away from prep arms like lefty Kruz Schoolcraft, and they’ve long liked Louisville’s Patrick Forbes.

23. Royals: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS, Portland, Ore. (No. 19)

Sometimes there are mock picks that are almost too easy that you worry about it being a little lazy — like giving a Royals scouting department headed by Brian Bridges the top prep lefty in the class. But it remains true there’s plenty of interest here. If they wanted to go with a high school hitter, Cunningham, Slater de Brun, Sean Gamble and Josh Hammond are all contenders.

24. Tigers: Slater de Brun, OF, Summit HS, Bend, Ore. (No. 24)

High school hitters are ruling the roost with this spot, and the Tigers could pick from among de Brun, who gives off serious Corbin Carroll vibes, Cunningham, Hammond or Gamble.

25. Padres: Kayson Cunningham, SS/2B, Johnson HS, San Antonio (No. 14)

There are few certainties in the Draft, but one of them is that the Padres take high school players up top, and they’ll likely look at this same bucket of prep hitters.

26. Phillies: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina (No. 33)

The Phillies have also been very high school heavy in the first round for the last several Drafts, so we’re going to change it up here and have them take the next best college catcher on the board, while they consider other college bats like Ethan Conrad. Prep bats like Gamble or Hammond are still a possibility.

27. Guardians: Josh Hammond, 3B, Wesleyan Christian Academy, High Point, N.C. (No. 26)

The Guardians could shift to college hitters should the top 26 picks unfold differently and one of the ones above them (Bodine, Stevenson) get here. They also could consider Conrad or Andrew Fischer from that group, but in this scenario, Hammond’s offensive potential will be of interest.

Supplemental first-round picks

28. Royals: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan (Ga.) HS (No. 62)
29. Diamondbacks: Andrew Fischer, 1B/3B, Tennessee (No. 29)
30. Orioles: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon (Wash.) HS (No. 25)
31. Orioles: Sean Gamble, 2B/OF, IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla. (No. 27)
32. Brewers: Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest (No. 28)
33. Red Sox: Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson (No. 36)
34. Tigers: Jaden Fauske, OF, Nazareth Academy, La Grange Park, Ill. (No. 57)
35. Mariners: Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana (No. 30)
36. Twins: Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State (No. 43)
37. Orioles: Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville (No. 31)
38. Mets: Jack Bauer, LHP, Lincoln-Way East HS, Frankfort, Ill. (No. 44)
39. Yankees: Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama (No. 38)
40. Dodgers: Quentin Young, 3B/OF, Oaks Christian HS, Westlake Village, Calif. (No. 37)
41. Dodgers: Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee (No. 61)
42. Rays: Tate Southisene, SS/OF, Basic HS, Las Vegas (No. 39)
43. Marlins: Mason Neville, OF, Oregon (No. 35)